Vancouver Canucks at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-12-19 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 1 - 4 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 61.0%

VAN: 39.0%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.28

VAN: 2.44

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Stat	NYI	VAN
Season SV%	0.910	0.905
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.55	2.72

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	31	27	4	87.1%	3.04	2	-0.96
VAN	Thatcher Demko	24	23	1	95.8%	2.56	1	1.56

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 17% • NYI at home vs VAN: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-19	VAN 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	VAN
2025-12-19	NYI 1 - 4 VAN	VAN	NYI
2025-03-26	NYI 2 - 5 VAN	VAN	NYI
2024-11-14	VAN 2 - 5 NYI	NYI	VAN
2024-01-09	NYI 2 - 5 VAN	VAN	NYI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	14	0	0.64
1	VAN	10	0	0.81
2	NYI	12	0	0.78
2	VAN	16	0	0.97
3	NYI	12	1	1.13
3	VAN	14	2	1.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown