Winnipeg Jets at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-12-19 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 2 Winnipeg Jets

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 77.4%

WPG: 22.6%

Expected Goals

COL: 4.30

WPG: 2.36

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Stat	COL	WPG
Season SV%	0.919	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.13	2.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Scott Wedgewood	22	20	2	90.9%	1.63	2	-0.37
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	26	23	3	88.5%	3.88	4	0.88

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • COL at home vs WPG: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	COL 2 - 4 WPG	WPG	COL
2026-03-26	WPG 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-14	WPG 3 - 1 COL	WPG	COL
2025-12-19	COL 3 - 2 WPG	COL	COL
2025-01-22	COL 2 - 3 WPG	WPG	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	12	0	0.54
1	WPG	11	0	0.30
2	COL	19	2	2.07
2	WPG	13	1	0.81
3	COL	12	2	1.27
3	WPG	9	1	0.52

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 77.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown