Dallas Stars at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2025-12-19 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 3 - 8 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

ANA: 57.1%

DAL: 42.9%

Expected Goals

ANA: 3.28

DAL: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

Stat	ANA	DAL
Season SV%	0.888	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.15	2.44

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Lukas Dostal	25	17	8	68.0%	3.09	3	-4.91
DAL	Casey DeSmith	25	22	3	88.0%	2.72	2	-0.28

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • ANA at home vs DAL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-13	ANA 3 - 1 DAL	ANA	ANA
2025-12-19	ANA 3 - 8 DAL	DAL	ANA
2025-11-06	DAL 5 - 7 ANA	ANA	ANA
2025-03-18	DAL 4 - 3 ANA	DAL	DAL
2025-02-04	ANA 2 - 1 DAL	ANA	ANA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	16	1	1.24
1	DAL	8	1	1.10
2	ANA	14	1	0.66
2	DAL	9	1	0.81
3	ANA	11	0	0.81
3	DAL	15	1	1.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown