Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-12-20 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 5 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYR: 53.8%

PHI: 46.2%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.23

PHI: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Stat	NYR	PHI
Season SV%	0.910	0.868
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	3.09

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	33	29	4	87.9%	2.98	0	-1.02
PHI	Samuel Ersson	29	23	6	79.3%	4.11	2	-1.89

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • NYR at home vs PHI: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-09	PHI 2 - 6 NYR	NYR	PHI
2026-02-26	NYR 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	NYR
2026-01-17	PHI 3 - 6 NYR	NYR	PHI
2025-12-20	NYR 5 - 4 PHI	NYR	NYR
2025-04-09	NYR 5 - 8 PHI	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	15	0	0.78
1	PHI	13	0	0.76
2	NYR	14	0	0.84
2	PHI	15	0	0.82
3	NYR	14	0	0.74
3	PHI	13	0	0.66
4	NYR	1	0	0.06
4	PHI	6	0	0.57
5	NYR	2	2	1.68
5	PHI	2	0	0.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 5 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1