Detroit Red Wings at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-12-20 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 5 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 52.0%

DET: 48.0%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.43

DET: 2.72

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

Stat	WSH	DET
Season SV%	0.913	0.893
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	2.97

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	41	36	5	87.8%	5.19	6	0.19
DET	John Gibson	26	24	2	92.3%	2.62	1	0.62

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WSH at home vs DET: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	DET 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-12-21	DET 3 - 2 WSH	DET	WSH
2025-12-20	WSH 2 - 5 DET	DET	WSH
2025-03-18	WSH 4 - 1 DET	WSH	WSH
2025-03-07	WSH 5 - 2 DET	WSH	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	8	0	0.43
1	DET	22	3	1.82
2	WSH	14	1	1.27
2	DET	19	2	1.90
3	WSH	20	0	0.93
3	DET	11	1	1.46

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown