Detroit Red Wings at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions
2025-12-20 • Capital One Arena
Washington Capitals 2 - 5 Detroit Red Wings
🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WSH: 52.0%
DET: 48.0%
Expected Goals
WSH: 3.04
DET: 3.24
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 64%
Over 6.5: 44%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WSH
Logan Thompson - 20-16-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.41 GAA
DET
John Gibson - 22-12-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.62 GAA
| Stat | WSH | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.893 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.904 | 0.887 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.900 | 0.898 |
| GAA | 2.39 | 2.97 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WSH at home vs DET: 3-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-29 | DET 3 - 4 WSH | WSH | DET |
| 2025-12-21 | DET 3 - 2 WSH | DET | DET |
| 2025-12-20 | WSH 2 - 5 DET | DET | WSH |
| 2025-03-18 | WSH 4 - 1 DET | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-03-07 | WSH 5 - 2 DET | WSH | WSH |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:05 | DET | Goal |
| 2 | 10:36 | DET | Goal |
| 2 | 10:05 | DET | Goal |
| 2 | 05:55 | DET | Goal |
| 2 | 01:37 | DET | Goal |
| 3 | 17:10 | DET | Goal |
| 3 | 08:30 | DET | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 52.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Washington Capitals 2 - 5 Detroit Red Wings
Expected: 3.0 - 3.2