Chicago Blackhawks at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-12-20 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 6 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 74.8%

CHI: 25.2%

Expected Goals

OTT: 4.05

CHI: 2.28

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Leevi Meriläinen - 5-7-0 | 0.872 SV% | 3.46 GAA

CHI

Arvid Soderblom - 4-7-1 | 0.873 SV% | 4.02 GAA

Stat	OTT	CHI
Season SV%	0.872	0.873
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.46	4.02

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Leevi Meriläinen	24	20	4	83.3%	1.69	1	-2.31
CHI	Arvid Soderblom	40	34	6	85.0%	5.39	4	-0.61

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • OTT at home vs CHI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-20	OTT 6 - 4 CHI	OTT	OTT
2025-10-28	CHI 7 - 3 OTT	CHI	OTT
2025-04-15	OTT 3 - 4 CHI	CHI	OTT
2025-03-05	CHI 3 - 4 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-03-28	OTT 2 - 0 CHI	OTT	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	21	1	1.94
1	CHI	9	1	0.59
2	OTT	16	1	1.30
2	CHI	18	0	0.87
3	OTT	24	2	2.15
3	CHI	5	0	0.23

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 74.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown