Edmonton Oilers at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2025-12-20 • Grand Casino Arena

Minnesota Wild 5 - 2 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (60% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MIN: 39.7%

EDM: 60.3%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.18

EDM: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

EDM

Calvin Pickard - 4-5-2 | 0.874 SV% | 3.69 GAA

Stat	MIN	EDM
Season SV%	0.912	0.874
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.47	3.69

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	30	28	2	93.3%	3.49	1	1.49
EDM	Calvin Pickard	37	32	5	86.5%	5.59	4	0.59

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • MIN at home vs EDM: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-31	EDM 3 - 7 MIN	MIN	EDM
2025-12-20	MIN 5 - 2 EDM	MIN	EDM
2025-12-02	EDM 0 - 1 MIN	MIN	EDM
2025-01-15	MIN 3 - 5 EDM	EDM	EDM
2024-12-12	MIN 1 - 7 EDM	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	18	1	1.93
1	EDM	19	1	1.93
2	MIN	12	1	0.88
2	EDM	13	0	0.90
3	MIN	16	2	2.77
3	EDM	11	0	0.67

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown