New York Islanders at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-12-20 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 New York Islanders (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 63.5%

NYI: 36.5%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.35

NYI: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Alex Lyon - 10-6-3 | 0.906 SV% | 2.82 GAA

NYI

David Rittich - 10-5-2 | 0.909 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Stat	BUF	NYI
Season SV%	0.906	0.909
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	2.46

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Alex Lyon	37	34	3	91.9%	4.60	3	1.60
NYI	David Rittich	35	31	4	88.6%	5.90	5	1.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BUF at home vs NYI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	BUF 4 - 3 NYI	BUF	BUF
2026-01-24	NYI 0 - 5 BUF	BUF	NYI
2025-12-20	BUF 3 - 2 NYI	BUF	BUF
2024-12-23	NYI 1 - 7 BUF	BUF	NYI
2024-11-30	NYI 3 - 0 BUF	NYI	NYI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	16	1	1.06
1	NYI	15	0	0.70
2	BUF	15	0	1.11
2	NYI	19	1	1.45
3	BUF	13	2	1.76
3	NYI	12	0	0.53
4	BUF	3	0	0.29
4	NYI	7	1	0.80
5	BUF	5	2	1.68
5	NYI	5	1	1.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0