New York Islanders at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-12-20 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 New York Islanders (SO)

Win Probability

BUF: 66.7%

NYI: 33.3%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.23

NYI: 2.72

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • BUF at home vs NYI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	BUF 4 - 3 NYI	BUF	BUF
2026-01-24	NYI 0 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-12-20	BUF 3 - 2 NYI	BUF	BUF
2024-12-23	NYI 1 - 7 BUF	BUF	NYI
2024-11-30	NYI 3 - 0 BUF	NYI	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	16	1	1.06
1	NYI	15	0	0.70
2	BUF	15	0	1.11
2	NYI	19	1	1.45
3	BUF	13	2	1.76
3	NYI	12	0	0.53
4	BUF	3	0	0.29
4	NYI	7	1	0.80
5	BUF	5	2	1.68
5	NYI	5	1	1.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.2 - 2.7