St. Louis Blues at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-12-20 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 2 - 6 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

FLA: 51.1%

STL: 48.9%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.37

STL: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

FLA

Daniil Tarasov - 4-6-2 | 0.899 SV% | 2.96 GAA

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

Stat	FLA	STL
Season SV%	0.899	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.96	2.87

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Daniil Tarasov	32	26	6	81.2%	3.91	5	-2.09
STL	Joel Hofer	29	27	2	93.1%	2.93	4	0.93

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • FLA at home vs STL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	STL 5 - 4 FLA	STL	FLA
2025-12-20	FLA 2 - 6 STL	STL	FLA
2025-02-06	STL 2 - 3 FLA	FLA	FLA
2024-12-20	FLA 2 - 1 STL	FLA	FLA
2024-01-09	STL 1 - 5 FLA	FLA	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	9	0	0.34
1	STL	13	1	0.99
2	FLA	18	4	2.22
2	STL	14	1	1.03
3	FLA	11	0	0.36
3	STL	19	3	1.88

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown