Vancouver Canucks at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2025-12-20 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 4 - 5 Vancouver Canucks (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BOS: 62.0%

VAN: 38.0%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.15

VAN: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

Stat	BOS	VAN
Season SV%	0.903	0.885
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.84	3.41

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	29	24	5	82.8%	3.25	2	-1.75
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	47	43	4	91.5%	4.73	6	0.73

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • BOS at home vs VAN: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-03	VAN 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	BOS
2025-12-20	BOS 4 - 5 VAN	VAN	BOS
2024-12-14	VAN 1 - 5 BOS	BOS	BOS
2024-11-26	BOS 0 - 2 VAN	VAN	BOS
2024-02-24	VAN 3 - 2 BOS	VAN	VAN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	20	2	1.41
1	VAN	6	0	0.36
2	BOS	17	1	1.15
2	VAN	16	0	0.76
3	BOS	13	1	0.79
3	VAN	10	1	0.59
4	BOS	7	2	0.81
4	VAN	3	0	0.18
5	BOS	7	0	0.57
5	VAN	7	1	1.35

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 4 - 5 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8