Pittsburgh Penguins at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-12-20 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 0 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 42.1%

PIT: 57.9%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.91

PIT: 3.82

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 52%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jacob Fowler - 3-1-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.64 GAA

PIT

Stuart Skinner - 12-11-4 | 0.888 SV% | 2.91 GAA

Stat	MTL	PIT
Season SV%	0.904	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.64	2.91

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jacob Fowler	31	31	0	100.0%	3.94	2	3.94
PIT	Stuart Skinner	21	17	4	81.0%	5.03	8	1.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • MTL at home vs PIT: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-21	PIT 4 - 3 MTL	PIT	PIT
2025-12-20	MTL 4 - 0 PIT	MTL	PIT
2025-12-11	PIT 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	PIT
2024-12-12	MTL 2 - 9 PIT	PIT	PIT
2024-11-02	PIT 3 - 1 MTL	PIT	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	13	1	1.16
1	PIT	13	1	1.04
2	MTL	13	1	1.02
2	PIT	14	0	1.15
3	MTL	11	6	2.86
3	PIT	25	1	1.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown