Pittsburgh Penguins at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-12-20 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 0 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

MTL: 62.3%

PIT: 37.7%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.12

PIT: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 73%

Over 6.5: 56%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • MTL at home vs PIT: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-21	PIT 4 - 3 MTL	PIT	PIT
2025-12-20	MTL 4 - 0 PIT	MTL	MTL
2025-12-11	PIT 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	MTL
2024-12-12	MTL 2 - 9 PIT	PIT	PIT
2024-11-02	PIT 3 - 1 MTL	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	13	1	1.16
1	PIT	13	1	1.04
2	MTL	13	1	1.02
2	PIT	14	0	1.15
3	MTL	11	6	2.86
3	PIT	25	1	1.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 0 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.1 - 2.9