Pittsburgh Penguins at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2025-12-20 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 4 - 0 Pittsburgh Penguins
🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 46.3%
PIT: 53.7%
Expected Goals
MTL: 2.68
PIT: 4.36
Total Goals
Median: 7.8
Over 5.5: 75%
Over 6.5: 64%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 29-10-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.78 GAA
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 23-17-9 | 0.888 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | MTL | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.889 | 0.888 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.891 | 0.886 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.903 | 0.850 |
| GAA | 3.01 | 2.91 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • MTL at home vs PIT: 1-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-21 | PIT 4 - 3 MTL | PIT | PIT |
| 2025-12-20 | MTL 4 - 0 PIT | MTL | PIT |
| 2025-12-11 | PIT 2 - 4 MTL | MTL | PIT |
| 2024-12-12 | MTL 2 - 9 PIT | PIT | PIT |
| 2024-11-02 | PIT 3 - 1 MTL | PIT | PIT |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 53.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 7.0
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 4 - 0 Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected: 2.7 - 4.4
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