Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-12-20 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 4 Carolina Hurricanes

Win Probability

TBL: 63.2%

CAR: 36.8%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.54

CAR: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs CAR: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	TBL 2 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-02-26	CAR 5 - 4 TBL	CAR	CAR
2025-12-20	TBL 6 - 4 CAR	TBL	TBL
2025-03-11	CAR 4 - 1 TBL	CAR	CAR
2025-01-07	TBL 3 - 2 CAR	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	10	1	0.85
1	CAR	13	0	1.13
2	TBL	21	2	1.95
2	CAR	12	0	0.25
3	TBL	14	1	1.29
3	CAR	10	0	0.45

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 4 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 3.5 - 2.8