Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-12-20 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 4 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 46.6%

CAR: 53.4%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.36

CAR: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

CAR

Pyotr Kochetkov - 6-2-0 | 0.899 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	TBL	CAR
Season SV%	0.913	0.899
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	22	18	4	81.8%	1.83	0	-2.17
CAR	Pyotr Kochetkov	29	23	6	79.3%	4.09	4	-1.91

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • TBL at home vs CAR: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	TBL 2 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-02-26	CAR 5 - 4 TBL	CAR	CAR
2025-12-20	TBL 6 - 4 CAR	TBL	CAR
2025-03-11	CAR 4 - 1 TBL	CAR	CAR
2025-01-07	TBL 3 - 2 CAR	TBL	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	10	1	0.85
1	CAR	13	0	1.13
2	TBL	21	2	1.95
2	CAR	12	0	0.25
3	TBL	14	1	1.29
3	CAR	10	0	0.45

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown