Vegas Golden Knights at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-12-20 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 6 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 45.1%

VGK: 54.9%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.09

VGK: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Devin Cooley - 4-4-2 | 0.914 SV% | 2.40 GAA

VGK

Akira Schmid - 11-4-4 | 0.895 SV% | 2.50 GAA

Stat	CGY	VGK
Season SV%	0.914	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.40	2.50

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Devin Cooley	37	34	3	91.9%	3.98	2	0.98
VGK	Akira Schmid	26	20	6	76.9%	3.56	3	-2.44

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • CGY at home vs VGK: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	VGK 6 - 3 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-12-20	CGY 6 - 3 VGK	CGY	VGK
2025-10-18	VGK 6 - 1 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-10-14	CGY 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-15	CGY 5 - 4 VGK	CGY	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	19	2	1.37
1	VGK	11	1	0.99
2	CGY	17	0	0.85
2	VGK	17	0	0.77
3	CGY	6	1	1.34
3	VGK	29	1	2.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown