Washington Capitals at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-12-21 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 2 Washington Capitals (OT)

Win Probability

DET: 53.5%

WSH: 46.5%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.88

WSH: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • DET at home vs WSH: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	DET 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-12-21	DET 3 - 2 WSH	DET	DET
2025-12-20	WSH 2 - 5 DET	DET	DET
2025-03-18	WSH 4 - 1 DET	WSH	WSH
2025-03-07	WSH 5 - 2 DET	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	7	0	0.38
1	WSH	22	1	1.64
2	DET	19	0	0.75
2	WSH	16	2	1.15
3	DET	9	0	0.48
3	WSH	17	2	1.54
4	DET	6	1	0.79
4	WSH	1	0	0.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 2 Washington Capitals

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3