Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2025-12-21 • Grand Casino Arena

Minnesota Wild 1 - 5 Colorado Avalanche

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MIN: 22.7%

COL: 77.3%

Expected Goals

MIN: 2.35

COL: 3.39

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MIN

Jesper Wallstedt - 11-2-3 | 0.928 SV% | 2.21 GAA

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

Stat	MIN	COL
Season SV%	0.928	0.924
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.21	2.07

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Jesper Wallstedt	42	37	5	88.1%	4.96	4	-0.04
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	29	28	1	96.6%	2.77	2	1.77

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 76% • MIN at home vs COL: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-13	COL 4 - 3 MIN	COL	COL
2026-05-11	MIN 2 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2026-05-09	MIN 5 - 1 COL	MIN	COL
2026-05-05	COL 5 - 2 MIN	COL	COL
2026-05-03	COL 9 - 6 MIN	COL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	11	0	0.45
1	COL	24	2	1.95
2	MIN	20	0	0.92
2	COL	27	0	1.44
3	MIN	19	2	1.39
3	COL	11	2	1.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 77.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown