Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2025-12-21 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 2 - 6 Ottawa Senators

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BOS: 44.3%

OTT: 55.7%

Expected Goals

BOS: 2.89

OTT: 3.25

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BOS

Joonas Korpisalo - 6-8-0 | 0.882 SV% | 3.60 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Stat	BOS	OTT
Season SV%	0.882	0.881
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.60	2.95

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Joonas Korpisalo	28	22	6	78.6%	3.35	7	-2.65
OTT	Linus Ullmark	20	18	2	90.0%	2.50	1	0.50

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • BOS at home vs OTT: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-21	BOS 2 - 6 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-13	OTT 5 - 3 BOS	OTT	OTT
2025-11-06	BOS 3 - 2 OTT	BOS	OTT
2025-10-27	OTT 7 - 2 BOS	OTT	OTT
2025-03-13	OTT 6 - 3 BOS	OTT	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	10	1	0.75
1	OTT	16	4	1.73
2	BOS	13	0	0.84
2	OTT	16	2	1.11
3	BOS	14	0	0.91
3	OTT	8	1	0.52

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown