Buffalo Sabres at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2025-12-21 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 1 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NJD: 62.9%

BUF: 37.1%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.22

BUF: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Stat	NJD	BUF
Season SV%	0.912	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.52	2.46

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jake Allen	25	22	3	88.0%	2.94	3	-0.06
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	27	26	1	96.3%	2.88	1	1.88

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • NJD at home vs BUF: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-25	NJD 1 - 2 BUF	BUF	NJD
2025-12-21	NJD 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	NJD
2025-11-28	BUF 0 - 5 NJD	NJD	BUF
2025-02-02	BUF 4 - 3 NJD	BUF	NJD
2024-10-05	NJD 3 - 1 BUF	NJD	NJD

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	14	1	1.16
1	BUF	13	0	0.29
2	NJD	12	0	0.48
2	BUF	15	1	0.99
3	NJD	21	0	1.25
3	BUF	7	2	1.65

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown