Toronto Maple Leafs at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-12-21 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 5 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

DAL: 70.7%

TOR: 29.3%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.86

TOR: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • DAL at home vs TOR: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TOR 5 - 6 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-12-21	DAL 5 - 1 TOR	DAL	DAL
2025-01-14	TOR 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-12-18	DAL 3 - 5 TOR	TOR	DAL
2024-02-07	TOR 5 - 4 DAL	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	9	0	0.66
1	TOR	13	0	0.50
2	DAL	7	0	0.47
2	TOR	21	1	1.70
3	DAL	17	3	2.16
3	TOR	13	0	0.61

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 70.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 5 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.9 - 3.0