Winnipeg Jets at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2025-12-21 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 4 - 3 Winnipeg Jets (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

UTA: 58.6%

WPG: 41.4%

Expected Goals

UTA: 3.68

WPG: 2.79

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Stat	UTA	WPG
Season SV%	0.895	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.68	2.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	26	23	3	88.5%	1.91	1	-1.09
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	22	18	4	81.8%	3.09	3	-0.91

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 86% • UTA at home vs WPG: 4-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	UTA 5 - 3 WPG	UTA	UTA
2025-12-21	UTA 4 - 3 WPG	UTA	UTA
2025-10-26	WPG 2 - 3 UTA	UTA	WPG
2025-04-05	UTA 4 - 1 WPG	UTA	UTA
2025-01-24	WPG 5 - 2 UTA	WPG	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	10	2	1.13
1	WPG	6	1	0.55
2	UTA	15	0	1.11
2	WPG	17	0	0.76
3	UTA	9	1	0.73
3	WPG	17	0	0.60
4	UTA	1	0	0.12
4	WPG	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Utah Hockey Club 4 - 3 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.7 - 2.8