Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-12-21 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

EDM: 49.5%

VGK: 50.5%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.13

VGK: 3.32

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM

Connor Ingram - 2-2-0 | 0.883 SV% | 3.28 GAA

VGK

Carter Hart - 4-2-3 | 0.883 SV% | 3.18 GAA

Stat	EDM	VGK
Season SV%	0.883	0.883
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.28	3.18

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Connor Ingram	31	28	3	90.3%	4.55	2	1.55
VGK	Carter Hart	21	17	4	81.0%	3.18	1	-0.82

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 43% • EDM at home vs VGK: 8-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	EDM 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-26	VGK 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2026-03-08	VGK 2 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2025-12-21	EDM 4 - 3 VGK	EDM	VGK
2025-05-14	VGK 0 - 1 EDM	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	20	0	1.33
1	VGK	16	0	1.55
2	EDM	11	0	1.20
2	VGK	15	0	1.00
3	EDM	6	1	0.65
3	VGK	15	2	2.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown