Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-12-21 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

EDM: 52.5%

VGK: 47.5%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.11

VGK: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • EDM at home vs VGK: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	EDM 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-26	VGK 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2026-03-08	VGK 2 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2025-12-21	EDM 4 - 3 VGK	EDM	EDM
2025-05-14	VGK 0 - 1 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	20	0	1.33
1	VGK	16	0	1.55
2	EDM	11	0	1.20
2	VGK	15	0	1.00
3	EDM	6	1	0.65
3	VGK	15	2	2.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1