St. Louis Blues at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-12-22 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 St. Louis Blues

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 68.1%

STL: 31.9%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.76

STL: 2.38

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Stat	TBL	STL
Season SV%	0.913	0.869
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	3.56

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	24	23	1	95.8%	2.12	1	1.12
STL	Jordan Binnington	17	13	4	76.5%	2.34	1	-1.66

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TBL at home vs STL: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-16	STL 3 - 2 TBL	STL	TBL
2025-12-22	TBL 4 - 1 STL	TBL	TBL
2024-12-19	TBL 3 - 1 STL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-05	STL 3 - 2 TBL	STL	TBL
2023-12-19	TBL 6 - 1 STL	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	14	1	1.05
1	STL	9	0	0.53
2	TBL	12	0	0.79
2	STL	13	0	0.65
3	TBL	5	0	0.50
3	STL	13	1	0.94

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 68.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown