Vancouver Canucks at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-12-22 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 5 - 2 Vancouver Canucks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 63.8%

VAN: 36.2%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.52

VAN: 2.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Stat	PHI	VAN
Season SV%	0.910	0.905
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.40	2.72

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Dan Vladar	25	23	2	92.0%	2.48	2	0.48
VAN	Thatcher Demko	39	34	5	87.2%	5.53	7	0.53

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • PHI at home vs VAN: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-30	VAN 3 - 6 PHI	PHI	PHI
2025-12-22	PHI 5 - 2 VAN	PHI	PHI
2024-10-19	PHI 0 - 3 VAN	VAN	PHI
2024-10-11	VAN 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2023-12-28	VAN 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	19	0	1.46
1	VAN	8	0	0.36
2	PHI	18	1	1.39
2	VAN	15	0	0.62
3	PHI	12	6	2.67
3	VAN	16	2	1.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown