Seattle Kraken at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2025-12-22 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 1 - 3 Seattle Kraken

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

ANA: 62.7%

SEA: 37.3%

Expected Goals

ANA: 3.42

SEA: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

Stat	ANA	SEA
Season SV%	0.888	0.920
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.15	2.32

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Lukas Dostal	21	18	3	85.7%	2.62	4	-0.38
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	41	40	1	97.6%	4.11	2	3.11

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • ANA at home vs SEA: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-03	ANA 4 - 2 SEA	ANA	ANA
2026-01-23	SEA 2 - 4 ANA	ANA	SEA
2025-12-22	ANA 1 - 3 SEA	SEA	ANA
2025-10-09	SEA 3 - 1 ANA	SEA	ANA
2025-01-28	SEA 4 - 6 ANA	ANA	ANA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	14	1	1.08
1	SEA	17	2	1.29
2	ANA	27	1	1.72
2	SEA	7	1	0.59
3	ANA	22	0	1.31
3	SEA	9	1	0.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown