Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-12-23 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 45.7%

PIT: 54.3%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.27

PIT: 3.45

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs PIT: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-23	TOR 6 - 3 PIT	TOR	PIT
2025-11-29	PIT 2 - 7 TOR	TOR	PIT
2025-11-03	TOR 4 - 3 PIT	TOR	TOR
2025-03-02	PIT 5 - 6 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-12-07	PIT 5 - 2 TOR	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	11	1	0.73
1	PIT	15	1	0.83
2	TOR	18	1	1.18
2	PIT	12	0	0.66
3	TOR	17	3	2.63
3	PIT	13	0	0.66

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.3 - 3.5