Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-12-23 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Win (61% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 39.5%

PIT: 60.5%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.48

PIT: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

PIT

Stuart Skinner - 12-11-4 | 0.888 SV% | 2.91 GAA

Stat	TOR	PIT
Season SV%	0.914	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.74	2.91

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	32	29	3	90.6%	2.15	1	-0.85
PIT	Stuart Skinner	31	25	6	80.6%	4.54	5	-1.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TOR at home vs PIT: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-23	TOR 6 - 3 PIT	TOR	PIT
2025-11-29	PIT 2 - 7 TOR	TOR	PIT
2025-11-03	TOR 4 - 3 PIT	TOR	TOR
2025-03-02	PIT 5 - 6 TOR	TOR	PIT
2024-12-07	PIT 5 - 2 TOR	PIT	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	11	1	0.73
1	PIT	15	1	0.83
2	TOR	18	1	1.18
2	PIT	12	0	0.66
3	TOR	17	3	2.63
3	PIT	13	0	0.66

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown