New York Rangers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-12-23 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 7 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 55.7%

NYR: 44.3%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.54

NYR: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • WSH at home vs NYR: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	NYR 8 - 1 WSH	NYR	NYR
2025-12-31	WSH 6 - 3 NYR	WSH	WSH
2025-12-23	WSH 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	WSH
2025-10-12	NYR 0 - 1 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-03-05	NYR 2 - 3 WSH	WSH	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	14	0	0.45
1	NYR	12	1	0.99
2	WSH	21	2	2.19
2	NYR	7	0	0.45
3	WSH	18	0	0.99
3	NYR	16	1	1.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 7 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.5 - 2.9