New York Rangers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-12-23 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 7 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 62.1%

NYR: 37.9%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.51

NYR: 2.48

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Stat	WSH	NYR
Season SV%	0.913	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	2.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	21	14	7	66.7%	3.26	2	-3.74
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	32	29	3	90.6%	3.63	2	0.63

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WSH at home vs NYR: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	NYR 8 - 1 WSH	NYR	NYR
2025-12-31	WSH 6 - 3 NYR	WSH	WSH
2025-12-23	WSH 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	WSH
2025-10-12	NYR 0 - 1 WSH	WSH	NYR
2025-03-05	NYR 2 - 3 WSH	WSH	NYR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	14	0	0.45
1	NYR	12	1	0.99
2	WSH	21	2	2.19
2	NYR	7	0	0.45
3	WSH	18	0	0.99
3	NYR	16	1	1.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown