Montreal Canadiens at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2025-12-23 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 2 - 6 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BOS: 58.6%

MTL: 41.4%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.42

MTL: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

MTL

Jacob Fowler - 3-1-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.64 GAA

Stat	BOS	MTL
Season SV%	0.903	0.904
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.84	2.64

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	29	23	6	79.3%	3.27	2	-2.73
MTL	Jacob Fowler	28	26	2	92.9%	2.87	3	0.87

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 82% • BOS at home vs MTL: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-17	MTL 3 - 2 BOS	MTL	MTL
2026-01-24	BOS 4 - 3 MTL	BOS	BOS
2025-12-23	BOS 2 - 6 MTL	MTL	BOS
2025-11-15	MTL 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	MTL
2025-04-03	MTL 4 - 1 BOS	MTL	MTL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	22	3	1.99
1	MTL	11	0	0.61
2	BOS	5	0	0.41
2	MTL	18	1	0.94
3	BOS	8	0	0.48
3	MTL	14	1	1.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown