Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-12-23 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 52.9%

BUF: 47.1%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.07

BUF: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • OTT at home vs BUF: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	OTT 4 - 1 BUF	OTT	OTT
2025-12-23	OTT 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-10-15	BUF 8 - 4 OTT	BUF	OTT
2025-04-01	OTT 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-03-25	BUF 3 - 2 OTT	BUF	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	17	0	1.21
1	BUF	16	0	0.69
2	OTT	13	0	0.77
2	BUF	10	0	0.67
3	OTT	15	1	1.20
3	BUF	5	0	0.11
4	OTT	0	0	0.00
4	BUF	1	0	0.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1