Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-12-23 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 51.8%

BUF: 48.2%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.44

BUF: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

BUF

Alex Lyon - 10-6-3 | 0.906 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	OTT	BUF
Season SV%	0.881	0.906
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.95	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	25	22	3	88.0%	1.54	0	-1.46
BUF	Alex Lyon	26	24	2	92.3%	3.19	1	1.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • OTT at home vs BUF: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	OTT 4 - 1 BUF	OTT	OTT
2025-12-23	OTT 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-10-15	BUF 8 - 4 OTT	BUF	OTT
2025-04-01	OTT 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-03-25	BUF 3 - 2 OTT	BUF	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	17	0	1.21
1	BUF	16	0	0.69
2	OTT	13	0	0.77
2	BUF	10	0	0.67
3	OTT	15	1	1.20
3	BUF	5	0	0.11
4	OTT	0	0	0.00
4	BUF	1	0	0.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9