Dallas Stars at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-12-23 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 3 Dallas Stars (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 52.3%

DAL: 47.7%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.29

DAL: 3.37

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

Stat	DET	DAL
Season SV%	0.893	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.97	2.44

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	John Gibson	22	19	3	86.4%	3.83	2	0.83
DAL	Casey DeSmith	25	21	4	84.0%	2.40	0	-1.60

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • DET at home vs DAL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	DAL 3 - 2 DET	DAL	DAL
2025-12-23	DET 4 - 3 DAL	DET	DET
2025-04-14	DET 6 - 4 DAL	DET	DET
2025-01-19	DAL 4 - 1 DET	DAL	DAL
2024-01-23	DET 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	10	0	0.48
1	DAL	12	0	0.76
2	DET	10	0	0.65
2	DAL	20	1	2.34
3	DET	16	0	1.04
3	DAL	11	1	0.74
4	DET	2	0	0.23
4	DAL	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 3 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.3 - 3.4