Florida Panthers at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2025-12-23 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 2 - 5 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Loss (69% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CAR: 69.2%

FLA: 30.8%

Expected Goals

CAR: 4.00

FLA: 2.68

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Stat	CAR	FLA
Season SV%	0.865	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.38	2.80

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	22	17	5	77.3%	2.80	2	-2.20
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	19	17	2	89.5%	2.11	1	0.11

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • CAR at home vs FLA: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-16	CAR 9 - 1 FLA	CAR	CAR
2025-12-23	CAR 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	CAR
2025-12-19	FLA 4 - 3 CAR	FLA	CAR
2025-05-28	CAR 3 - 5 FLA	FLA	CAR
2025-05-26	FLA 0 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	17	0	0.72
1	FLA	12	0	0.52
2	CAR	17	1	1.13
2	FLA	10	0	0.45
3	CAR	9	0	0.26
3	FLA	20	2	1.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 69.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown