Utah Hockey Club at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-12-23 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 0 Utah Hockey Club

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 70.4%

UTA: 29.6%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.64

UTA: 2.43

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

UTA

Vitek Vanecek - 2-9-1 | 0.879 SV% | 2.92 GAA

Stat	COL	UTA
Season SV%	0.919	0.879
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.13	2.92

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Scott Wedgewood	32	32	0	100.0%	2.14	1	2.14
UTA	Vitek Vanecek	26	25	1	96.2%	2.85	3	1.85

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 71% • COL at home vs UTA: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-25	UTA 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2025-12-23	COL 1 - 0 UTA	COL	COL
2025-10-21	UTA 4 - 3 COL	UTA	COL
2025-10-09	COL 2 - 1 UTA	COL	COL
2024-12-27	UTA 1 - 4 COL	COL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	17	2	1.46
1	UTA	10	1	0.55
2	COL	12	0	0.87
2	UTA	16	0	1.02
3	COL	7	1	0.52
3	UTA	13	0	0.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 70.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown