Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-12-23 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 5 - 1 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

EDM: 51.1%

CGY: 48.9%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.31

CGY: 3.73

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • EDM at home vs CGY: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	CGY 4 - 3 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-27	CGY 3 - 2 EDM	CGY	CGY
2025-12-23	EDM 5 - 1 CGY	EDM	EDM
2025-10-08	EDM 3 - 4 CGY	CGY	EDM
2025-03-29	EDM 3 - 2 CGY	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	18	2	1.96
1	CGY	11	0	0.33
2	EDM	25	0	2.21
2	CGY	12	0	0.92
3	EDM	11	1	1.06
3	CGY	8	0	0.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 5 - 1 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.3 - 3.7