Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-12-23 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 5 - 1 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

EDM: 48.4%

CGY: 51.6%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.21

CGY: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM

Connor Ingram - 2-2-0 | 0.883 SV% | 3.28 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	EDM	CGY
Season SV%	0.883	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.28	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Connor Ingram	19	18	1	94.7%	1.74	0	0.74
CGY	Dustin Wolf	39	34	5	87.2%	5.23	3	0.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 48% • EDM at home vs CGY: 7-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	CGY 4 - 3 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-27	CGY 3 - 2 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-23	EDM 5 - 1 CGY	EDM	CGY
2025-10-08	EDM 3 - 4 CGY	CGY	EDM
2025-03-29	EDM 3 - 2 CGY	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	18	2	1.96
1	CGY	11	0	0.33
2	EDM	25	0	2.21
2	CGY	12	0	0.92
3	EDM	11	1	1.06
3	CGY	8	0	0.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown