San Jose Sharks at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-12-23 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 7 - 2 San Jose Sharks

Win Probability

VGK: 71.3%

SJS: 28.7%

Expected Goals

VGK: 4.36

SJS: 2.77

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 91% • VGK at home vs SJS: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-11	SJS 2 - 7 VGK	VGK	SJS
2025-12-23	VGK 7 - 2 SJS	VGK	VGK
2025-11-29	VGK 4 - 3 SJS	VGK	VGK
2025-10-09	SJS 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-07	SJS 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	25	3	2.61
1	SJS	6	0	0.13
2	VGK	10	0	0.91
2	SJS	6	0	0.22
3	VGK	7	0	0.63
3	SJS	23	0	1.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 71.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 7.1

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 7 - 2 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 4.4 - 2.8