Boston Bruins at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-12-27 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 1 Boston Bruins

Win Probability

BUF: 54.0%

BOS: 46.0%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.16

BOS: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 59% • BUF at home vs BOS: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-01	BOS 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-28	BUF 1 - 2 BOS	BOS	BUF
2026-04-26	BOS 1 - 6 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-23	BOS 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-21	BUF 2 - 4 BOS	BOS	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	16	0	0.59
1	BOS	15	0	0.70
2	BUF	17	1	0.96
2	BOS	7	0	0.34
3	BUF	11	2	2.04
3	BOS	21	0	1.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 1 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0