Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-12-27 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 7 - 5 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (64% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 36.2%

OTT: 63.8%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.98

OTT: 3.25

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Stat	TOR	OTT
Season SV%	0.914	0.881
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.74	2.95

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	31	26	5	83.9%	4.10	3	-0.90
OTT	Linus Ullmark	33	26	7	78.8%	5.17	7	-1.83

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 71% • TOR at home vs OTT: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	OTT 3 - 1 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-03-21	OTT 5 - 2 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-02-28	TOR 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-27	TOR 7 - 5 OTT	TOR	OTT
2025-05-01	OTT 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	6	1	0.62
1	OTT	14	1	0.85
2	TOR	25	3	2.22
2	OTT	20	1	1.62
3	TOR	11	3	2.33
3	OTT	20	1	1.63

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown