Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-12-27 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 7 - 5 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 46.0%

OTT: 54.0%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.97

OTT: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • TOR at home vs OTT: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	OTT 3 - 1 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-03-21	OTT 5 - 2 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-02-28	TOR 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-27	TOR 7 - 5 OTT	TOR	OTT
2025-05-01	OTT 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	6	1	0.62
1	OTT	14	1	0.85
2	TOR	25	3	2.22
2	OTT	20	1	1.62
3	TOR	11	3	2.33
3	OTT	20	1	1.63

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 7 - 5 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1