Washington Capitals at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2025-12-27 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 3 - 4 Washington Capitals (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NJD: 60.3%

WSH: 39.7%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.55

WSH: 2.51

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Stat	NJD	WSH
Season SV%	0.912	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.52	2.39

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jake Allen	33	29	4	87.9%	4.82	5	0.82
WSH	Logan Thompson	38	35	3	92.1%	2.81	1	-0.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • NJD at home vs WSH: 1-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	NJD 7 - 3 WSH	NJD	NJD
2026-03-20	WSH 2 - 1 NJD	WSH	NJD
2025-12-27	NJD 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	NJD
2025-11-15	WSH 2 - 3 NJD	NJD	WSH
2024-11-30	NJD 5 - 6 WSH	WSH	NJD

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	19	0	0.80
1	WSH	14	1	1.45
2	NJD	20	1	1.48
2	WSH	11	1	1.17
3	NJD	9	0	0.46
3	WSH	19	2	1.66
4	NJD	1	0	0.08
4	WSH	2	1	0.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 3 - 4 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.6 - 2.5