Edmonton Oilers at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-12-27 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 2 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 49.6%

EDM: 50.4%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.58

EDM: 3.25

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

EDM

Connor Ingram - 2-2-0 | 0.883 SV% | 3.28 GAA

Stat	CGY	EDM
Season SV%	0.901	0.883
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	3.28

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	31	29	2	93.5%	3.01	1	1.01
EDM	Connor Ingram	32	29	3	90.6%	3.11	0	0.11

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • CGY at home vs EDM: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	CGY 4 - 3 EDM	CGY	CGY
2025-12-27	CGY 3 - 2 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-23	EDM 5 - 1 CGY	EDM	EDM
2025-10-08	EDM 3 - 4 CGY	CGY	CGY
2025-03-29	EDM 3 - 2 CGY	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	20	0	1.37
1	EDM	12	0	0.91
2	CGY	11	0	0.83
2	EDM	13	1	0.97
3	CGY	11	0	0.91
3	EDM	18	0	1.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown