San Jose Sharks at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2025-12-27 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 3 - 6 San Jose Sharks

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VAN: 52.7%

SJS: 47.3%

Expected Goals

VAN: 3.09

SJS: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

Stat	VAN	SJS
Season SV%	0.905	0.896
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.72	3.36

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Thatcher Demko	38	32	6	84.2%	6.52	4	0.52
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	27	24	3	88.9%	2.71	2	-0.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • VAN at home vs SJS: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	SJS 3 - 4 VAN	VAN	SJS
2026-01-27	VAN 2 - 5 SJS	SJS	VAN
2025-12-27	VAN 3 - 6 SJS	SJS	VAN
2025-11-28	SJS 3 - 2 VAN	SJS	VAN
2025-04-14	VAN 2 - 1 SJS	VAN	VAN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	11	1	0.74
1	SJS	22	1	1.81
2	VAN	12	0	0.49
2	SJS	20	1	2.02
3	VAN	18	1	1.47
3	SJS	20	2	2.69

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown