Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-12-27 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 6 Colorado Avalanche (SO)

Win Probability

VGK: 44.0%

COL: 56.0%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.41

COL: 3.39

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 46% • VGK at home vs COL: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-26	VGK 2 - 1 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-24	VGK 5 - 3 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-22	COL 1 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-05-20	COL 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-04-11	COL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	9	0	0.61
1	COL	16	0	0.58
2	VGK	16	1	1.39
2	COL	21	1	1.42
3	VGK	13	2	1.23
3	COL	28	2	1.93
4	VGK	0	0	0.00
4	COL	6	0	0.48
5	VGK	4	1	1.14
5	COL	4	2	1.63

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 6 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.4 - 3.4