Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-12-28 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs (OT)

Win Probability

DET: 63.5%

TOR: 36.5%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.19

TOR: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • DET at home vs TOR: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	TOR 1 - 2 DET	DET	DET
2025-12-28	DET 3 - 2 TOR	DET	DET
2025-10-13	TOR 2 - 3 DET	DET	DET
2025-10-11	DET 6 - 3 TOR	DET	DET
2025-04-17	TOR 4 - 3 DET	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	14	0	0.69
1	TOR	15	0	0.71
2	DET	18	0	0.62
2	TOR	12	2	1.34
3	DET	20	0	1.26
3	TOR	12	1	0.71
4	DET	3	0	0.33
4	TOR	2	0	0.09

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9