Philadelphia Flyers at Seattle Kraken NHL Predictions

2025-12-28 • Climate Pledge Arena

Seattle Kraken 4 - 1 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Win (63% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SEA: 36.9%

PHI: 63.1%

Expected Goals

SEA: 3.07

PHI: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	SEA	PHI
Season SV%	0.920	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.32	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	33	32	1	97.0%	3.29	1	2.29
PHI	Dan Vladar	20	16	4	80.0%	2.46	2	-1.54

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • SEA at home vs PHI: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-28	SEA 4 - 1 PHI	SEA	PHI
2025-10-20	PHI 5 - 2 SEA	PHI	PHI
2025-03-08	PHI 1 - 4 SEA	SEA	PHI
2024-10-17	SEA 6 - 4 PHI	SEA	SEA
2024-02-10	PHI 3 - 2 SEA	PHI	SEA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SEA	10	0	0.34
1	PHI	18	1	1.61
2	SEA	9	0	0.46
2	PHI	12	0	0.66
3	SEA	7	2	1.66
3	PHI	20	0	1.02

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown