Columbus Blue Jackets at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-12-29 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 1 - 4 Columbus Blue Jackets

🚨 Upset Loss (71% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 71.4%

CBJ: 28.6%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.33

CBJ: 2.63

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Leevi Meriläinen - 5-7-0 | 0.872 SV% | 3.46 GAA

CBJ

Jet Greaves - 11-10-5 | 0.909 SV% | 2.62 GAA

Stat	OTT	CBJ
Season SV%	0.872	0.909
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.46	2.62

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Leevi Meriläinen	22	18	4	81.8%	3.24	4	-0.76
CBJ	Jet Greaves	28	27	1	96.4%	2.12	1	1.12

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • OTT at home vs CBJ: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-20	CBJ 1 - 4 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-29	OTT 1 - 4 CBJ	CBJ	OTT
2025-12-11	CBJ 3 - 6 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-04-08	CBJ 5 - 2 OTT	CBJ	OTT
2025-04-06	OTT 4 - 0 CBJ	OTT	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	8	1	0.47
1	CBJ	19	2	1.36
2	OTT	13	0	0.98
2	CBJ	4	0	0.16
3	OTT	20	0	0.67
3	CBJ	13	2	1.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 71.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown