Edmonton Oilers at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2025-12-29 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 1 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WPG: 53.3%

EDM: 46.7%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.39

EDM: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

EDM

Calvin Pickard - 4-5-2 | 0.874 SV% | 3.69 GAA

Stat	WPG	EDM
Season SV%	0.907	0.874
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	3.69

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	21	18	3	85.7%	3.56	2	0.56
EDM	Calvin Pickard	42	41	1	97.6%	4.32	1	3.32

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • WPG at home vs EDM: 0-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-08	WPG 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	WPG
2025-12-29	WPG 1 - 3 EDM	EDM	WPG
2025-12-06	EDM 6 - 2 WPG	EDM	EDM
2025-04-13	WPG 1 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-03-20	EDM 3 - 4 WPG	WPG	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	19	0	1.44
1	EDM	12	0	0.57
2	WPG	17	0	1.27
2	EDM	9	0	1.15
3	WPG	27	1	1.61
3	EDM	15	2	1.84

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown