Buffalo Sabres at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2025-12-29 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 2 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

STL: 47.4%

BUF: 52.6%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.10

BUF: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

BUF

Alex Lyon - 10-6-3 | 0.906 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	STL	BUF
Season SV%	0.901	0.906
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.87	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Joel Hofer	34	30	4	88.2%	3.75	2	-0.25
BUF	Alex Lyon	18	16	2	88.9%	1.55	0	-0.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • STL at home vs BUF: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-29	STL 2 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-11-06	BUF 0 - 3 STL	STL	BUF
2024-12-29	STL 2 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2024-11-14	BUF 4 - 3 STL	BUF	BUF
2024-02-10	BUF 1 - 3 STL	STL	STL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	11	0	0.50
1	BUF	12	0	0.49
2	STL	9	0	0.65
2	BUF	19	1	1.54
3	STL	7	0	0.40
3	BUF	21	1	1.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown