Montreal Canadiens at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-12-30 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 2 - 3 Montreal Canadiens (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

FLA: 56.2%

MTL: 43.8%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.45

MTL: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

FLA

Daniil Tarasov - 4-6-2 | 0.899 SV% | 2.96 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Stat	FLA	MTL
Season SV%	0.899	0.863
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.96	3.52

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Daniil Tarasov	29	26	3	89.7%	3.87	4	0.87
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	30	28	2	93.3%	2.89	2	0.89

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • FLA at home vs MTL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	MTL 4 - 3 FLA	MTL	MTL
2026-01-08	MTL 6 - 2 FLA	MTL	FLA
2025-12-30	FLA 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	FLA
2025-04-01	MTL 3 - 2 FLA	MTL	FLA
2025-03-30	FLA 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	12	0	0.65
1	MTL	13	2	1.27
2	FLA	11	1	0.90
2	MTL	15	0	0.88
3	FLA	14	1	1.11
3	MTL	15	1	1.08
4	FLA	2	0	0.23
4	MTL	4	1	0.63

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 2 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0