Carolina Hurricanes at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-12-30 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 1 Carolina Hurricanes

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 61.4%

CAR: 38.6%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.13

CAR: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Stuart Skinner - 12-11-4 | 0.888 SV% | 2.91 GAA

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Stat	PIT	CAR
Season SV%	0.888	0.865
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.91	3.38

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Stuart Skinner	28	27	1	96.4%	2.07	0	1.07
CAR	Frederik Andersen	28	23	5	82.1%	2.98	1	-2.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 72% • PIT at home vs CAR: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	PIT 1 - 5 CAR	CAR	PIT
2026-03-18	CAR 6 - 5 PIT	CAR	CAR
2026-03-10	CAR 5 - 4 PIT	CAR	CAR
2025-12-30	PIT 5 - 1 CAR	PIT	PIT
2025-01-05	CAR 4 - 3 PIT	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	22	1	1.66
1	CAR	17	0	0.90
2	PIT	14	0	0.84
2	CAR	12	0	0.54
3	PIT	9	0	0.48
3	CAR	13	0	0.63

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown