Philadelphia Flyers at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2025-12-30 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 3 - 6 Philadelphia Flyers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VAN: 38.5%

PHI: 61.5%

Expected Goals

VAN: 2.86

PHI: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	VAN	PHI
Season SV%	0.905	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.72	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Thatcher Demko	33	27	6	81.8%	4.24	4	-1.76
PHI	Dan Vladar	35	32	3	91.4%	3.24	1	0.24

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • VAN at home vs PHI: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-30	VAN 3 - 6 PHI	PHI	PHI
2025-12-22	PHI 5 - 2 VAN	PHI	PHI
2024-10-19	PHI 0 - 3 VAN	VAN	PHI
2024-10-11	VAN 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2023-12-28	VAN 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	20	1	1.54
1	PHI	10	0	0.34
2	VAN	12	0	0.52
2	PHI	25	0	1.48
3	VAN	24	0	1.18
3	PHI	13	4	2.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown