New York Rangers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-12-31 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 6 - 3 New York Rangers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 62.9%

NYR: 37.1%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.43

NYR: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

NYR

Jonathan Quick - 3-6-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.11 GAA

Stat	WSH	NYR
Season SV%	0.887	0.924
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.07	2.11

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	25	22	3	88.0%	2.49	1	-0.51
NYR	Jonathan Quick	27	21	6	77.8%	4.36	5	-1.64

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WSH at home vs NYR: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	NYR 8 - 1 WSH	NYR	NYR
2025-12-31	WSH 6 - 3 NYR	WSH	WSH
2025-12-23	WSH 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	WSH
2025-10-12	NYR 0 - 1 WSH	WSH	NYR
2025-03-05	NYR 2 - 3 WSH	WSH	NYR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	11	1	0.77
1	NYR	8	1	0.66
2	WSH	18	3	1.80
2	NYR	16	0	1.03
3	WSH	13	1	1.80
3	NYR	16	0	0.79

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown