Tampa Bay Lightning at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2025-12-31 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 3 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

ANA: 43.6%

TBL: 56.4%

Expected Goals

ANA: 2.95

TBL: 3.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	ANA	TBL
Season SV%	0.888	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.15	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Lukas Dostal	29	25	4	86.2%	2.88	3	-1.12
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	28	25	3	89.3%	2.92	2	-0.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • ANA at home vs TBL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-31	ANA 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-25	TBL 4 - 3 ANA	TBL	TBL
2025-01-16	TBL 4 - 3 ANA	TBL	TBL
2025-01-05	ANA 4 - 1 TBL	ANA	TBL
2024-03-24	ANA 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	12	0	0.39
1	TBL	13	1	0.81
2	ANA	13	1	0.88
2	TBL	13	1	0.86
3	ANA	19	1	1.59
3	TBL	11	0	0.57
4	ANA	1	0	0.06
4	TBL	4	1	0.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 3 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.9 - 3.9