Minnesota Wild at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2025-12-31 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 4 - 3 Minnesota Wild (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 43.0%

MIN: 57.0%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.20

MIN: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

MIN

Jesper Wallstedt - 11-2-3 | 0.928 SV% | 2.21 GAA

Stat	SJS	MIN
Season SV%	0.896	0.928
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.36	2.21

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	25	22	3	88.0%	2.84	1	-0.16
MIN	Jesper Wallstedt	30	25	5	83.3%	3.71	2	-1.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • SJS at home vs MIN: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-31	SJS 4 - 3 MIN	SJS	MIN
2025-11-11	MIN 1 - 2 SJS	SJS	MIN
2025-10-26	MIN 5 - 6 SJS	SJS	MIN
2025-04-09	MIN 8 - 7 SJS	MIN	MIN
2025-01-11	SJS 1 - 3 MIN	MIN	MIN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	12	0	0.59
1	MIN	12	0	0.63
2	SJS	12	0	0.78
2	MIN	14	1	1.17
3	SJS	13	0	0.54
3	MIN	12	0	0.61
4	SJS	3	0	0.19
4	MIN	4	0	0.31
5	SJS	2	2	1.61
5	MIN	2	0	0.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 4 - 3 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1