Buffalo Sabres at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-12-31 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 1 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 51.5%

BUF: 48.5%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.63

BUF: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DAL at home vs BUF: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	BUF 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	BUF
2025-12-31	DAL 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	DAL
2024-12-31	DAL 4 - 2 BUF	DAL	DAL
2024-10-22	BUF 4 - 2 DAL	BUF	BUF
2024-04-09	DAL 3 - 2 BUF	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	15	1	1.28
1	BUF	23	2	1.60
2	DAL	9	2	1.19
2	BUF	14	0	0.91
3	DAL	14	1	0.81
3	BUF	9	1	0.61

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 1 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.6 - 3.0